Portugueses version of the text.
The isolationist policies and diplomatic tensions of the US under the leadership of Donald Trump have raised significant concerns on the global stage. Anti-immigration measures, sanctions, and tariffs imposed on other countries, along with conflicts with traditional allies, are creating an environment of instability and uncertainty. In this text, we will analyze the potential repercussions of these actions and the role of BRICS countries in creating a new world order.
## US Isolation and International Reaction
If the US continues to adopt an aggressive and isolationist stance, it could lead to even greater isolation. Traditional allies like Canada, Europe, and Brazil might adopt a more neutral stance or seek to strengthen ties with other commercial and strategic partners. This would weaken the US's position on the global stage and could lead to an economic and diplomatic crisis.
## Crises with Canada and Greenland
Relations between the US and Canada have been tense due to Trump's threats to impose tariffs on Canadian products and his statements about annexing Canada. Trump suggested that Canada should become the 51st state of the US, which prompted a strong reaction from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who stated that "there is no chance" of that happening. Additionally, Trump expressed interest in annexing Greenland, which was rejected by the Danish government. These statements and threats have generated significant diplomatic tensions.
## Crises with European Countries
Tensions between the US and European countries have also increased, especially due to Trump's criticisms of NATO and his stance on the war in Ukraine. Trump criticized European countries for not contributing enough to NATO's defense and threatened to reduce military aid to Ukraine. These actions have raised concerns among European allies about the US's reliability as a strategic partner.
To top it off, after taking office, Donald Trump withdrew the US from several international organizations and agreements. In addition to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Paris Climate Agreement, he also withdrew the US from the World Trade Organization (WTO). He justified this decision by arguing that the WTO was harming US commercial interests and that the organization needed significant reforms. These withdrawals are part of Trump's protectionist and nationalist stance, which aimed to protect the American economy and promote "America First."
## Deportation Crisis and Workforce
The mass deportation of illegal immigrants in the US could lead to a significant diplomatic crisis in Latin America. Countries like Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico have already expressed their dissatisfaction with Trump's policies, initially refusing to accept military planes with deported immigrants. This included the US government taxing Colombia by 25% for refusing to receive the military planes, prompting Colombia to threaten to tax the US equally. However, a day after this crisis, they reached an agreement, and there will be no taxation for either side. These tensions could lead to a deterioration of diplomatic and commercial relations between the US and Latin American countries.
Additionally, many illegal immigrants in the US work in essential sectors such as construction, agriculture, cleaning services, and hospitality. Currently, it is estimated that there are about 11 million unauthorized immigrants in the United States. The mass deportation of these workers could create a labor shortage in the country, increasing production costs and, consequently, the prices of goods and services. This situation could lead to inflation and economic difficulties for American consumers.
## Economic Impact of Tariffs and Isolation
The United States has promised to tax some countries, such as China, mainly for two reasons:
1. **Drug Trafficking**: President Donald Trump mentioned that one of the reasons for imposing tariffs on China is the importation of fentanyl, a highly lethal synthetic opioid drug, which is being sent to the US through countries like Mexico and Canada. Trump argues that these tariffs are a way to pressure China to take stricter measures against drug trafficking.
2. **Trade Deficit**: Another reason is the trade deficit between the US and China, which Trump describes as "ridiculous." He believes that imposing tariffs can help balance trade between the two countries and protect the American economy.
However, imposing tariffs on products from countries that refuse to align with US policies could further exacerbate American economic problems. These tariffs would increase import costs, reducing the competitiveness of foreign products in the American market and leading to higher prices for consumers.
On the other hand, countries affected by the tariffs could retaliate with their own measures, imposing tariffs on American products and seeking alternative trade partners. This situation could lead to economic isolation for the US, harming sectors such as technology, agriculture, and manufacturing, which depend on exports to remain competitive.
If Colombia had the courage to retaliate against the US with taxes, why couldn't countries like Canada, Mexico, and Brazil do the same if they faced economic sanctions? The consequences for the US could be significant. Imposing tariffs on products imported from these countries would increase import costs, leading to higher prices for American consumers. Economists warn that these tariffs could raise inflation to between 6% and 9.3% by 2026, compared to a forecast of 1.9% without these measures.
Additionally, many essential products, such as food and raw materials, are imported from Canada, Mexico, and especially Brazil. Imposing tariffs could lead to a shortage of these products, even though the US is a major food producer, further increasing prices and causing difficulties for American consumers and businesses. Sectors such as technology, agriculture, and manufacturing, which depend on exports to remain competitive, would be harmed. Imposing retaliatory tariffs by Canada, Mexico, and Brazil could reduce the competitiveness of American products in these markets, leading to a decline in exports and negatively affecting the US economy.
On the other hand, countries affected by the tariffs could retaliate with their own measures, imposing tariffs on American products and seeking alternative trade partners. This situation could lead to economic isolation for the US, harming its trade relations with other countries and strengthening the position of BRICS countries on the global stage.
## Role of BRICS
BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have the potential to become a counterforce to US power, especially China. If BRICS can strengthen their economies and increase cooperation among themselves and their allies, they can reduce dependence on the US and create a new world order. The current crisis could be an opportunity for BRICS to consolidate themselves as a viable alternative to US economic and political dominance, something that has already been discussed among the bloc's countries.
China has been heavily investing in partner countries in Latin America and Africa to have the necessary infrastructure and logistics to move its new Silk Road. In addition to the new BRICS members, in 2024, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Iran joined as full members. At the beginning of 2025, Indonesia also became a full member. Additionally, Nigeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda, and Uzbekistan were added as partners.
This expansion aims to strengthen economic and political cooperation among member countries and increase the group's influence on the global stage.
## Possibility of Armed Conflict
In the worst-case scenario, escalating tensions and severe isolation of the US could lead to armed conflicts. Ongoing wars, such as the one between Russia and Ukraine and the one in Israel in the Middle East, are already signs of an unstable geopolitical scenario. The possibility of new conflicts involving Taiwan and China, North Korea supporting Russia and its eternal threat to Japan and South Korea, as well as crises in other countries, further increases the concern that a crisis in the world's greatest power could bring about a new global armed conflict.
## Conclusion
The current situation is extremely complex and volatile. International cooperation and dialogue are essential to avoid a global crisis and promote peace and stability. If the US does not adopt a more moderate stance, they could end up being the biggest losers, facing an unprecedented economic and diplomatic crisis. However, the most expected outcome is that Trump will tone down his threats and accusations and that his allies and the American people will ease the tension.
